Saturday, 20 June 2015

Ceramics Leader-Kajaria


Research  Report

[NOT COPIED FROM ANYWHERE. INFORMATION GAHTERED AND COMPILED FROM VARIOUS BUSINESS RELATED MAGAZINES & PUBLICATIONS, WEBSITES, NEWSPAPERS, REPORT FROM BROKERAGE HOUSES]       
                                             
Kajaria Ceramics Limited

 Indian Tile Industry

The total Indian tile industry size is around Rs. 19,500 crores, but as compared to China and Brazil India’s Share is just 1/6th and 1/7th respectively, which clearly shows huge growth potential lies ahead for this industry to grow. Ceramic tiles are integral to home improvement. They are primarily hygiene products, evident from their varied use in bathrooms and kitchen to most households to medical centres, labs, shopping malls and other centres.
This is a very competitive space to operate with so many unorganized players manufacturing at low cost, low quality and pretty much fragmented. Most of the tile production in India happens at Morbi Gujrat which is a hub for unorganized tile companies.

Top  5  Leading Manufacturing Nations          [MSM=Miles Square Metre]
Regions                  Year 2012(MSM)                % of World’s Production
  China                             5200                                47
  Brazil                             866                                   8
  India                              691                                   6
  Iran                               500                                   5
  Itly                                376                                   3

[Source : Ceramic World Review]
[Latest figures could not be made available due to lack of information source]


Top  5  Leading Consuming Nations in 2012
Regions                            % of World’s Production
  China                                       39
  Brazil                                         7
  India                                         6
  Iran                                           3
  Vietnam                                     2

Opportunity in INDIA         
Indian economy to grow at faster rate than other developing countries. Recent GDP growth of 7.5% is quite satisfactory and now policies of Government will place the Indian economy in the new growth track. The whole sentiment of the FIIs, FPIs  and HNIs have become positive after the formation of new Government and policy announcement and more importantly endeavour towards the implementation of those policies.
Further new government’s push for housing for everyone, recent budget announcement for making sanitary toilets in India will give fuel to the engine of the tile industry. Now, also imports from china are declining as domestic players have developed the capability to manufacture quality and cost efficient products. Chinese manufacturing cost have increased and Indian currency has weakened.
Further huge urbanization happening in India and it will continue to happen. The spread of roads, telephones and electricity is helping urban centres extend, creating new population clusters, resulting in emergence of significant housing demand from non-metro locations.
There are few tailwinds for organized tile industry in India in near future:
(i)           Per Capita consumption of tile in India is 6 times less than China and 7 times less than Brazil which shows huge potential for growth.
(ii)          As per last census 2011, numbers of cities have grown 3 times in 10years which show rapid urbanization happening in India.
(iii)         People migrating from rural to urban will cross 40% to 33%; young generation’s spending on brands and affordability. Tiles expenses as a % of housing cost is less than 10%.

About KAJARIA         
Kajaria, having its registered office at Sikandrabad, Uttar Pradesh, is promoted by Mr. Ashok Kajaria. Mr. Kajaria has over 30 years of rich experience in the tile industry, global marketing and business related to construction industry. The company enjoys a broad presence across ceramic tiles, polished vitrified tiles and glazed vitrified tiles.

Pan-India Reach
Kajaria possesses one of the largest sectoral deladrship networks comprising more than 10,000 sales points across India.

Multichannel Distribution Netowrk

(a)  Kajaria Galaxy – 25 Nos. – 4,000 sq ft each for all tile verticals.
(b) Kajaria Prima – 95Nos. – A dealer store for display of Ceramic wall and floor tiles without keeping any other tile brands.
(c)  Kajaria World – 19 Nos. – A Standalone store that provides dedicated space to high end tiles.
(d)  Kajaria Studio – 222 Nos – For Polished Vitrified and/or glazed vitrified tile verticals.
(e)  Kajaria – 550 Nos. – For Multibrand delaers.

Clients of Kajaria
There is a huge client-base of Kajaria. In order to keep the report brief I am mentioning 3 to 7 names from each sector in this vertical.
(a)  Corporate:  Bosch, HUL, Ambuja Cement, L&T, Microsoft, Vodafone retail stores, Tata Steel.
(b)  Entertainment:  Inox – Jaipur, Cinemax, Zee Tv Studio – Noida.
(c)   Auto: M&M, Maruti Suzuki, Honda Scooters, Tata Motors.
(d)  Banks : SBI, RBI, BOB, HDFC, Axis, Yes Bank, Indusind Bank
(e)  Builders and Developers: Shova Developers, Mihindra lifestyly, Omaxe group, HDIL Ajmera Group.
(f)   College and Schools: DPS, Don Bosco, Sarala Devi Birla, Amity University.
(g)  Govt: Airport Authority of India, BHEL, BPCL, BSNL, LIC, Forest Dept, NTPC, ONGC.
(h)  Hotels: ITC Grand, Pink Pearl, Haldirams’, City Palace – Udaipur.
(i)    IT: IBM, TCS, Infosys, Wipro, Techmahindra, HCL Tech.
(j)   Retail Sector: Big Bazar, City Centre, Shoppers Stop, Reliance Mart.

(k)  Sprots: DY Patil Stadium Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium, Wankhade Stadium.


Products of Kajaria
Kajaria produces and sells three types of tiles. The details are following:

(a) Ceramic Tiles
Most commonly used tiles in households for flooring and wall. Lot of low cost manufactures are present in this space. So, competition is steep in this segment as this is the low end in the value chain. Kajaria gets 44% revenue from this segment.

(b) Polished Vitrified Tiles
There is a structural shift towards vitrified tiles due to its high-quality, less porosity, less water consumption, high durability and its strength. It is expensive than ceramic tiles.

Kajaria is the largest producer of vitrified tiles. The company gets 38% Share from this segment. Also operating margin (16% - 17%) is greater as compared to ceramic tiles (14% - 15%). The company is aiming for higher growth in this space. The company has commissioned two plants recently for capacity addition. Consumers also preferring this tile due to the reasons mentioned above. Kajaria Used to import before; but it has consciously invested in adding PVT capacity due to its high margin and strong growth.

(c) Glazed Vitrified Tiles
This segment contributes 18% of the total revenue of the company. This product was introduced in 2007-08 in India for the first time in an organised manner by way of import. It is alternative to the expensive Italian marbles. Kajaria, today possesses the largest product basket in terms of designs and sizes. The company offers the largest number of wood and stone finish tiles in the large format.
This tile represents the premium segment in the tile value chain, marked by quality, durability and flexibility to impart unique designs and textures. The use of digital printing technology on vitrified tiles has widened design and texture options. This is more expensive than PVT and it is gaining acceptance for the consumer on the upper end.
Recently the company has introduced the eternity HD wood range in two sizes, initiated export to the US for the first time and increased the domestic retail presence.

Financials
Kajaria registered healthy growth despite the numerous challanges faced by the domestic tile manufactures amid of volatile economic situations. The company has shown strong financial muscle and sustained profitable business growth over the last 4 – 5 years.

Net Sales       (Rs in millions)
2010-11         2011-12         2012-13         2013-14         2014-15
  9523           13,115         15,822         18,387              21,869

Net sales grew by 18.94% over 2013-14 whereas industry growth rate is 14% - 15%.
Most importantly the working capital cycle is reduced drastically from 80days in 2009-10 to 25 days in 2013-14 [2014-15 figures could not be made available due to lack of information source]. This was largely due to a faster product offtake and faster payments by dealers. Shorter Working Capital cycle increased net cash flow from operations.

Debt Equity Ratio (times)
2009-10         2010-11         2011-12         2012-13         2013-14
  1.39             1.28             0.96             0.82             0.41

Net Profit       (Rs in millions)
2010-11         2011-12         2012-13         2013-14         2014-15
  606            809              1045            1242            1756

Net profit grew by 41.38% over 2013-14.

Return on Capital Employed ( % )
2009-10                    2010-11         2011-12            2012-13               2013-14
  16.98                     22.09                   27.96             28.89             29.06

Growth of Share Price
In April 2013 the high and low price of Kajaria was Rs209.25 and Rs177.25 respectively in National Stock Excchange (NSE). Now the price of the company quoting Rs 750 plus i.e. price is increased more than 4 times during past two years. So, we can say that it has delivered more than 400% return in last two years whereas Sensex Return is less than 30% in last two years. So, it outperformed Sensex and Nifity and it will continue to do so.

Comparison with Peers
Top 3 players accounts for half of organized sales of `10,000 crores.
Kajaria: 2,000 Crores.
H&R Johnson: 1,900 Crores.
Somany: 1,400 Crores.

Operating Margin (%)
2014                2013           2012           2011                     
Kajaria          12.41              13.95          15.27           15.58                    
Somany        6.49               8.12             8.40             9.46           
Orient            8.0                10.0             9.10            8.84            



Net Margin (%)
2014                2013                       2012                                 
Kajaria            6.2                 6.3                          6.2                                 
Somany         2.22                  3.0                         2.83                                
Orient           0.35                 1.71                        2.46 
                     
Other Competitor Nitco Tile is making losses for last 3 years.
Look at the difference between Kajaria and its listed competitors in terms of margins. They are not even close to its OPM an NP. What is more important is Kajaria is less leveraged than its peers.

Price Realisation per sqm (` )
2009-10         2010-11         2011-12         2012-13         2013-14
  292              321              330              348              354

It took five years to increase prices by 20%, so the future growth should come from volume only not value. It cannot raise prices vis-a-vis inflation.

Region wise Revenue Split
Today it has strong presence in north which contributes 42% of revenue; the south contributes 29% and balance come from West and East Zones. Currently Tire II and III cities contribute 25% to 30% to the company’s topline.

Chartered Accountant
Company’s auditor is O.P. Bagla & Company. The firm has 40 years of rich experience and expertise.

SWOT ANALYSIS

STRENGTHS
Kajaria has strong presence in North mainly due to its plants are located in Galipur(Rajasthan) , Sikandrabad(UP). It did not have strong presence in south before. Now, in order to get access to the southern markets, it made a joint venture by acquiring 51% stake in local tile companies; one in Vennar, Andhra Pradesh and 3 others in Gujarat. Instead of setting up capacities from scratch, Kajaria went through this asset-light Joint venture route to reduce the time to start production.


What is asset light model?
Asset light model is a business model where business now instead of purchasing the land enters into a contract with the land owner, where they share a certain percentage of profit arising out of the business done arising out of the business done on the land. This helps in savings a huge cost of land to the business.

WEAKNESS
Just like cement industry, tile industry suffer from logistics cost if the manufacturing plants are not located close to the customers selling point, margins will take a hit owing to the huge logistics cost involved in transportation across India.

OPPORTUNITY
Still more than 60% of the houses in India have been constructed with flooring materials like mud, sand, cement, mosaic which provides an idea of how much more this industry has to grow to reach its saturation.
Young generations have fantasy about brands. ‘Kajaria’ is a well-established brand and it has gained its brand acceptance through its quality, customer satisfaction and tactful marketing. It has gained competitive advantage through wide distribution network, joint venture, wide product range. Kajaria is a pure play tile company. Now it expects to transform into India’s first holistic bathroom solution provider. In this space there are few players like CERA. But there is a lot of scope for growth. New multi storied, bungalows are built up and peoples’ fascination regarding bathroom solution will lead to growth in this space.

THREAT
Growth comes at capacity additions only and not through price realizations because tile industry does not have pricing power owing to its excessive competition.
Another Risk is entry of foreign companies (Italy, Spain) in the Vitrified tile segment. Right now imports from other countries are facing margin pressures due to rupee depreciation. So, not sure how long the foreign companies sustain their presence with low margin business.
Chinese import risk: Govt of India has imposed anti-dumping duty on Chinese imported tiles. Also, cost of manufacturing has increased in China which has naturally reduced the Chinese imports.

CONCLUSION
Go for Kajaria at every correction in stock price. Whenever market provides opportunity, pick Kajaria on SIP basis. It has a tremendous growth potential to go long way.

DISCLAIMER
I personally hold Kajaria in my portfolio so I have interest in it. 

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